ERCOT forecast and new analysis show the Texas grid moving away from fossil fuels

By John Hall

A duo of recent announcements underscore the clear direction the Texas grid is headed: toward more renewable energy, storage, energy efficiency and sophisticated demand-side management resources and away from coal.
That means less climate and local air pollution, of course. But it also means more local jobs, less volatile energy costs, a more stable and reliable grid and yet another opportunity for Texas to reap the economic benefits that come with being an energy pioneer.

Texas will meet electricity demand with a record amount of clean energy this summer
This week, Texas’ grid operator, The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, issued its Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for June – September 2020 and updated its Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report . It projects that even though Texas is likely to experience record electricity peak demand this summer, even higher than last year’s record peak, the grid will be able to provide sufficient generation across the state. ERCOT’s reserve margin (the amount of energy ERCOT can tap above what it expects to need) was revised upward to 12.6%. For those of us who rely on the grid to stay cool during brutal Texas summers, that’s good news indeed.

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However, the more interesting news is how Texas is meeting this record demand with new, clean resources. ERCOT’s report notes that in just the last several months, seven wind, solar and storage projects totaling 979 megawatts came online. Those projects will contribute 276 MW to meet this summer’s peak. Without this additional capacity (as well as the clean energy that has been installed since last summer) Texas would be stuck with a reserve margin of just 7.5%, according to EDF’s analysis — and staring down another nail-biting summer.
Utility scale solar is a great match for peak summer demand, which typically coincides with solar’s most productive hours in the day. ERCOT is projecting that market forces in the competitive market will accelerate its growth over the next few years and increase the reserve margin to almost 20% in 2021 and remain in this range through 2024.
That’s bad news for coal-fired generation which is uneconomic except during the summer when hot temperatures drive residential air conditioners to consume more than 50% of the electricity that is generated and cause wholesale power prices to spike dramatically. Increased deployment of storage and reductions in electricity demand through efficiency, demand response and rooftop solar, coupled with modern energy management technology, would increase competition in ERCOT, reduce costs and ensure grid reliability and resilience.
The ERCOT report also highlights the quick relief that rooftop solar can provide to ERCOT’s summer peak demand. Among various market penetration...